Global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuels are projected to fall by around 0.4% in 2026. This is based on the latest preliminary estimates from the Global Carbon Project, published today.
This is a small reduction within an overall upward trend. Emissions have grown more slowly over the past decade than in previous decades, but they have not yet peaked or begun a consistent decline.
This fall mostly came from a reduction in oil consumption and a small decline in gas. Coal use increased slightly.
Among the major emitters, emissions are projected to fall in China, the United States, the European Union, and Japan. But they’re expected to increase by around 4% in India.
Why did emissions fall? The authors cite three key factors.
The deployment of clean energy (particularly solar and wind) displaced some fossil fuel use that would have otherwise been required to meet growing energy demand. Electric vehicles also reduced oil demand. Finally, the war in Iran and its impact on oil prices led to reduced demand, which has inadvertently reduced emissions.
Emissions from land-use change are more uncertain but are projected to increase this year due to peat fires and forest degradation in Southeast Asia.
Source: ourworldindata.org
