What is going to happen to the dollar towards the end of this year, next year and 2028? What is expected for inflation and the economy?

Los analysts They maintained the growth projections of the Uruguayan economy for this year, while raising the estimates of inflation for 2026. On the other hand, they practically left unchanged (compared to the previous month) your forecasts about how much the dollar at the end of this year, 2027 and 2028, according to the Economic Expectations Survey and the Inflation Expectations Survey of the Banco Central (BCU) corresponding to November in which economists, banks, consultants, unions, stockbrokers and AFAP responded and which was disclosed yesterday.

Regarding the Gross domestic product (GDP), the analysts consulted maintained the median growth forecasts for this year at 1% (the answers are ordered from lowest to highest and the center is taken) (the same figure as in October and September, they estimated 1.2% in August). Projections range from 0.50% to 1.3%.

The new government estimate included in the Accountability bill is that the Uruguayan economy grow 1.6% this year.

Meanwhile, for 2027 the median expansion projected by analysts is 1.68% (in October they estimated 1.65% and in September and August they predicted 1.7%, that is, stable in recent months). Here the answers range between 1.5% and 2.6%.

The team’s estimate of Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF) headed by Gabriel Oddone It is a GDP growth of 2.1% by 2027.

For 2028, median analysts estimate that GDP will grow 1.75% (in October and September they projected 1.8% and predicted 1.90% in August, that is, stable in recent months). In this case, the one that estimated the least foresees 1.3% expansion and the one that projected the most predicts 2%.

The MEF’s projection is for a GDP expansion of 2.4% for that year.

Economists, consultants, banks and AFAP raised their projections of price increase for 2026 by estimating 5.07% as a median (in October they projected 4.87% and in September and August they predicted 4.70%), with responses ranging from 4.04% as a minimum to 5.40% as a maximum. That is, inflation would be outside the target Banco Central of 4.5% (although within the tolerance range of 1.5 points above and below).

Meanwhile, for next year, analysts believe that the inflation It will close at 4.59% (always in the median), almost the same figure that they estimated in October (4.56%) and in September and August (4.55%). The answers range between 3.9% and 5.35%.

In turn, for the next 24 months (to October 2028), respondents predict on average that the price increase will be 4.57%, practically unchanged compared to previous measurements (in October they projected 4.54%, in September they predicted 4.55% and in August they projected 4.50%). Projections range from 3.82% to 5.02%.

The 24-month measurement is of particular importance for the BCU, since it is what it takes when calibrating the reference interest rate, which is currently at 6%.

Photo: El País Archive

In fact, in the survey, the BCU highlighted that “all responses continue within the reference range for the policy horizon. 46% of analysts are between the minimum value (3.8%) and 4.5%.”

For their part, the financial operators They practically maintained their inflation expectations for this year, since they went from 4.90% in median in October to 4.94% in November (with responses between 4.6% and 5.3%), according to the Financial Market Inflation Expectations Survey.

By 2027, financial operators do not foresee that the price increase reach the BCU goal, with a median estimate of 4.62%, almost the same as the 4.6% they saw in October (with responses ranging from 4.4% to 5.85%).

Meanwhile, for the next 24 months, financial operators project a median inflation of 4.6%, practically stable compared to 4.55% in October (with responses between 3.82% and 5.56%).

Regarding the dollar value By the end of this year, banks, economists, consultants, unions, stockbrokers and AFAP predict that, on average, it will close 2026 at $40.50 (the same figure as in October and September, while in August they believed it would end at $40.60). The minimum estimate is that the greenback will trade at $40.10 at the end of the year and the maximum is that it will be at $40.93.

In this way, analysts predict that the US currency will remain practically stable between now and the end of the year (yesterday it traded on average at $40,611 at the interbank level).

Meanwhile, for end of 2027analysts estimate that the greenback will be trading at $41.40 (median), when a month ago they projected it to be at $41.30, in September at $41.40 and in August at $41.63. Answers range from $40.50 to $43.

For him closing 2028he dollar It would be trading at $42.20, according to the analysts’ median projection, the same value as in October, while in September they believed it would be at $42.30 and in August at $42.53. Answers range from $41 to $46 at most.

This month the following participated in the surveys: AEE, Aldo Lema (Vixion Consultores), AIC Economía, Balanz, BBVA, Bengochea Inversiones, Banco Hipotecario, Banco de Seguros del Estado, BTG Pactual, Center for Economic Research (Cinve), Chamber of Industries, CPA Ferrere, Exante, Gletir, Grant Thornton, Institute of Economics, AFAP Integration, Banco Itaú, KPMG, Nobilis, Puente, Pablo Moya, PwC, República AFAP, Sura and Scotiabank.