I don’t know who needs to hear this, but we are only seven weeks away from 2027.
For much of the year — and much of last year, too — we’ve been hearing about the decline of international inbound travel in the United States. Now that the bulk of 2026 is behind us, we can quantify that impact a bit more.
Last week, the U.S. Travel Association revealed that in 2026, the U.S. saw international visitor spending dip by an inflation-adjusted $11 billion. It’s a 6.3% year-over-year drop to $163 billion. Compared to 2019, U.S. international arrivals dropped 14.6% to 67.8 million from 79.4 million.
Yes, these numbers are even factoring in the World Cup fans that, according to my various social feeds, swarmed Waffle Houses and Targets sipping Big Gulps and fawning over ranch dressing.
While international inbound travel slowing has been the topic of discussion at every conference I attended this year, the rise in domestic travel is always mentioned in the same conversation. The U.S. will have an expected record of 2.44 billion domestic trips this year. The sentiment has always been that this uptick in domestic travel balances out the decline in international.
But, it doesn’t — at least not according to U.S. Travel Association’s report. Total inflation-adjusting travel spending in the U.S. is forecast to decline 0.7% to $1.35 trillion in 2026.
At the same time, travel prices are rising. In 2026, travel prices rose 7.2%, which is more than twice inflation. So, even though we’ve seen hotels driving rate to compensate for a dip in occupancy, that hasn’t evened out either.
We’re constantly hearing about the desire for travel growing for people who now consider globetrotting a fixture in their budgets, rather than a luxury that they don’t prioritize spending on. So, if that’s true, where are they going if not the U.S.?
World international arrivals is expected to rise 11.7% for the full-year 2026 compared to 2019’s numbers. The countries with the largest international inbound growth since then has been France, with 23.1% growth; Spain, with 27.7% growth; and Japan, with a whopping 40.7% growth. U.S. Travel Association used October 2026 data from Tourism Economics for this.
Hoteliers have a lot to be happy about in 2026, and I don’t mean to take anything away from that. In August, CoStar and Tourism Economics again upgraded their U.S. hotel growth forecast. Year-over-year revenue-per-available-room growth is expected to grow 4.4% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027. Average daily rate is forecast to increase 3.1% this year and 1.6% next year. That’s the latest forecast for now, but later this month we should see a new one that might be even more telling.
Travelers want to travel more, yes, and the hospitality industry stands to gain from that. But as the bigger-picture international travel trends suggest, it’s not a guarantee that an increasing interest in travel translates to an increase in travel spending. U.S. hoteliers need to keep an eye on these trends to best set expectations for 2027 — which will be here before we know it.
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