Public safety is key to a successful city. To help policymakers in the District better understand crime patterns, drivers, and deterrents, the D.C. Policy Center’s Alice M. Rivlin Initiative has selected ten insights from existing research. Given the breadth and complexity of the topic, these insights should not be considered exhaustive. Each insight is accompanied by a D.C.-related fact.
Insight #1: Changes in the overall crime rate do not necessarily track trends in violent crime.
Although the overall crime rate is a frequently cited measure, it can be misleading if not carefully interpreted. The overall reported crime rate is calculated by adding reported violent and property crimes, dividing the total by the population, and multiplying by 100,000.
Property crimes—such as theft, burglary, and auto theft—substantially outnumber violent crimes. In 2024, the nationwide ratio of reported property crimes to violent crimes was 4.9 to 1. Because property crimes often account for a larger share of reported crimes, changes in property crime can move the overall crime rate more than comparable changes in violent crime. A city’s overall crime rate can rise while violent crime remains stable. Alternatively, the overall crime rate may decline even as violent crime increases.
D.C. Fact #1: Crime trends in the District between January 1, 2026, and October 23, 2026, illustrate why looking at different offenses is important. Compared to the same period in 2025, violent crime has increased by 12 percent, driven by an increase in assaults with a dangerous weapon. Yet, homicides have declined by 27 percent, property crime has dropped by 15 percent, and total crime has fallen by 12 percent.
Insight #2: Crime data is imperfect.
Interpreting crime data requires consideration of how the data are collected, recorded, and reported. First, not all crimes are reported to the police. Certain types of crimes, such as sexual assault, may go unreported. Second, the FBI’s Hierarchy Rule, which applies to its national Summary Reporting System (SRS), “requires that only the most serious offense in a multiple-offense criminal incident be counted.” For instance, if a robbery and an aggravated assault occur during the same incident, the aggravated assault is not counted. For this reason, crime statistics may not capture all crimes committed during one incident.
D.C. Fact #2: Although this fact is not specific to the District, motor vehicle thefts are often reported to the police for insurance purposes.
Insight #3: Crime tends to be geographically concentrated.
Crime rates are often higher in urban areas than in suburban or rural ones, and violence tends to be concentrated in particular neighborhoods within a city. These neighborhoods frequently have elevated rates of joblessness and poverty, which often coincide with historical patterns of social and economic disadvantage.
D.C. Fact #3: A map of homicides in the District, Prince George’s County, and Montgomery County shows that, between February 1, 2017, and July 5, 2023, homicides tended to be clustered along the District’s border with Prince George’s County.
Insight #4: Crime imposes costs beyond the immediate victim.
For victims, the costs of crime can include financial loss, property damage, psychological distress, physical harm, and the loss of life. For the broader community, crime or the fear of crime may reduce the number of potential customers passing by businesses, lower school attendance among children, undermine residents’ psychological well-being, and decrease property values.
D.C. Fact #4: In 2023, 15 percent of surveyed high school students in the city reported missing at least one day of school in the past month because they felt unsafe at school or while traveling to and from school.
Insight #5: Alcohol plays a substantial but often underappreciated role in crime.
Social scientist Mark Kleiman has remarked that all “illegal drugs combined are to alcohol as the Mediterranean is to the Pacific.” His remark is apt. Alcohol consumption or availability, according to a previous literature review by the Manhattan Institute, are associated with crimes such as assault and domestic violence. Other research has linked alcohol use to homicide. A 2014 review of other studies found that “on average, 48% of homicide offenders were reportedly under the influence of alcohol at the time of the offense and 37% were intoxicated.”
D.C. Fact #5: In 2022, compared to other states, the District had the highest percentage (24.2 percent) of adults aged 18 or older who engaged in binge drinking in the past 30 days. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), binge drinking is when a male consumes “five or more drinks… on an occasion,” or a female consumes “four or more drinks” on an occasion.
Insight #6: Homicides disproportionately affect younger Black men.
In the United States, murders affect young Black men at much higher rates than other demographic groups. In 2020, young Black men between the ages of 15 and 24 made up 17 percent of all murder victims but accounted for 1 percent of the population. The murder rate for young Black men was 108 per 100,000 people in 2020. Guns account for a disproportionate share of these murders. For context, in 2020, the rate for the rest of the population (excluding young Black men) was 6.3 per 100,000 people.
D.C. Fact #6: In 2024, Black people accounted for 42 percent of the District population but 98 percent of gun homicides in the city. People between the ages of 15 and 34 accounted for 60 percent of gun homicide deaths in the District.
Insight #7: Increasing the chance of apprehension and sanctions generally matters more for deterrence than the length or severity of punishment.
Deterrence depends more on the likelihood of apprehension and sanctions than on the severity or length of punishment. Increasing the number of police officers is one way to raise the likelihood of an offender being caught. One study found that an additional 10 police officers are associated with one fewer murder. The same study also found that for every life saved, there may be 3 to 6 incidents in which police officers use force. Compared with expanding the police force, technology, such as surveillance cameras, may offer a more cost-effective means of detecting crime and possibly reducing it.
D.C. Fact #7: In 2013, the Metropolitan Police Department of the District of Columbia had about 4,000 officers. By 2023, the number of officers declined by approximately 16 percent. In early 2026, the number of police officers fell further to 3,144—a 21 percent decline since 2013.
Insight #8: Incarceration rates are unusually high in the United States. Violent crimes, not drug offenses, have driven mass incarceration.
People incarcerated for drug offenses account for approximately 17 percent of U.S. state prison populations. Low-level, nonviolent drug offenses account for just 5 to 6 percent of state prisoners. These statistics suggest that violent crime—not drug offenses—has driven the substantial increase of the prison population in the United States since the mid-1970s. Consequently, releasing all the prisoners who committed low-level, non-violent drug offenses would not end the current era of mass incarceration.
D.C. Fact #8: A 2023 D.C. Policy Center study found that roughly 50 percent of D.C. Code offenders held in federal Bureau of Prisons facilities were incarcerated for kidnapping, aggravated assault, or homicide.
Insight #9: Education and employment are long-term crime prevention measures.
Access to quality education and stable employment can help reduce crime. Targeted workforce programs that connect people with jobs have been associated with lower violent crime arrests among youth. Investments in education, beginning in early childhood, can support long-term public safety. Keeping young people in school creates opportunities and may make criminal activity less attractive.
D.C. Fact #9: Chronic absenteeism is an ongoing challenge. During the 2024–25 school year, 40 percent of D.C. students missed at least 10 percent of the school year. Reducing chronic absenteeism can help keep students engaged in school and may contribute to efforts to reduce crime.
Insight #10: Public opinion on crime matters but often diverges from the actual trends.
When asked by pollsters, many people say crime is rising nationwide, even when it is falling. For example, in 2014, when national violent crime rates were at their lowest since 1969, most Americans still believed that crime had gotten worse.
What accounts for the gap between public opinion and actual crime trends? One possibility is that people focus more on the level of crime around them than trends over time. Media coverage, especially of violent incidents, may also reinforce people’s sense that crime is either rising or remains too high. Regardless of the reasons for the disconnect, public opinion about crime matters. Opinions about crime—and especially violent crime—can shape how people live and vote.
D.C. Fact #10: Past concerns about crime in the District were not without merit. Between 1960 and 2021, the District consistently had a higher homicide rate than Prince George’s County, MD, Montgomery County, MD, Fairfax County, VA, Alexandria City, VA, and Arlington County, VA.
Source: www.dcpolicycenter.org
