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Prediction markets are serious issue for NBA, other sports
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Prediction markets are serious issue for NBA, other sports

by Caleb Craig, Cronkite News November 12, 2026Cronkite News offers an audio version of this story using an automated voice created by AI. Errors in pronunciation, pacing and intonation may occur. If you notice an error please contact [email protected] – Dillon Brooks spoofs his rivalry with LeBron James in a commercial for Kalshi that first

by Caleb Craig, Cronkite News
November 12, 2026

Cronkite News offers an audio version of this story using an automated voice created by AI. Errors in pronunciation, pacing and intonation may occur. If you notice an error please contact [email protected].

PHOENIX – Dillon Brooks spoofs his rivalry with LeBron James in a commercial for Kalshi that first aired on Oct. 20. James has an endorsement deal with rival prediction market Polymarket.

The Phoenix Suns forward hawks the King Blocker 9000, “advanced breakthrough technology” that purports to mute any television mention of James or his myriad nicknames. It makes light of the 76ers star’s overexposure and multiple career team changes.

Kalshi commissioned and gave away 23 physical King Blocker 9000 units to fans who entered the giveaway, which ended Nov. 2. Entrants were required to have a verified Kalshi account, but they were not required to deposit money or make a trade. The campaign page also included, of course, a link to Kalshi’s NBA markets.

The promotion began shortly before the NBA announced partnerships with Kalshi and Polymarket on Oct. 26. The agreements allow the companies to use NBA branding and create marketing opportunities around the league. Their financial terms were not disclosed, the Associated Press reported.

The NBA’s decision has sparked a debate. The NBA argues that partnering with Kalshi and Polymarket allows the league to establish official data-sharing feeds, enforce strict trading bans for league employees and set limits on market offerings in coordination with regulators. Proponents view the NBA’s decision as a pragmatic approach to gain oversight over a rapidly growing financial sector.

Opponents view the move as prioritizing lucrative data rights and sponsorship revenue over the long-term trust of fans and the integrity of the game.

Perhaps ironically, the NBA announced its prediction market partnerships shortly after launching a campaign with the National Council on Problem Gambling. Public health advocates and integrity watchdogs criticized the league’s timing, arguing that legitimizing speculative exchanges conflicts with its stated commitment to mitigating gambling addiction.

State officials have also challenged Kalshi’s sports markets in court, accusing the company of running an illegal gambling business. In March 2026, Arizona Attorney General Kris Mayes filed a 20-count criminal document in Maricopa County Superior Court against KalshiEX LLC, making Arizona the first state in the nation to file criminal charges against a federally regulated prediction market exchange.

Washington Attorney General Nick Brown also sued Kalshi that month.

Kalshi and Polymarket offer prediction markets, where customers buy and sell contracts tied to event outcomes. On Kalshi, participants trade with one another and the company collects transaction fees. Traditional sportsbooks accept wagers on either side of an outcome and build a margin, known as the vig, into their odds.

Kalshi argues that federal commodities law prevents states from applying their gambling laws to its exchange. In May, a federal judge temporarily blocked Arizona from enforcing its gambling laws against the company. Arizona appealed.

ESPN betting reporter David Purdum expects more advertising on television and social media, along with NBA and team logos replacing generic team references on the platforms. NBA backing can make a platform look more credible to potential customers, said Brett Smiley, editorial director of gambling industry publication InGame.

“It opens up some more pathways for institutional investment,” Smiley said.

Institutional investors include organizations such as pension funds and insurance companies.

Kalshi paid Brooks for the commercial and promotion, according to the giveaway rules. The rules identify Kalshi as the sponsor and state that the NBA did not administer or sponsor the giveaway.

While the agreements can be lucrative for players, some detractors cited concerns.

Matt Brown, founder of the college sports newsletter Extra Points, has heard coaches and administrators describe harassment from bettors and concerns about player safety and manipulation of games.

“I think it’s a terrible idea to invite people while you’re an active player,” Brown said of athletes promoting betting companies.

Brown understands why players would want endorsement money when leagues also accept money from betting companies.

“I think in a perfect world, the answer would be neither of you should,” Brown said.

Under the new agreements, the NBA can decide which markets Kalshi and Polymarket may offer on its games, according to The Associated Press.

Sportsbooks can see the wagers placed on their platforms and are often the first to notice unusual betting patterns.

“One of the first things the sports books do is alert the integrity monitors,” Purdum said.

Those monitoring companies can then notify leagues and regulators. A player who intentionally leaves a game early can help bettors win wagers on that player finishing below projected totals in points, rebounds and assists. Those bets are called unders. Combining several of those bets into one wager, called a parlay, can increase the potential payout.

Smiley singled out reserves who play only a few minutes. He wants to know whether the NBA’s agreements with prediction markets prohibit bets on those players falling below projected totals.

The NBA had already targeted similar wagers at partner sportsbooks. On Oct. 16, the league restricted certain unders involving players expected to play only a few minutes and parlays combining multiple unders on one player, AP reported. The NBA said restrictions for authorized prediction market operators would align with its latest sports betting rules.

Kalshi says its NBA agreement bars league and team personnel from trading NBA contracts and provides for reporting suspicious activity. The company’s announcement does not specify how quickly a suspicious trade must be reported.

The NBA also signed a separate memorandum with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the federal derivatives regulator, to support information sharing. Sharing information under the memorandum is voluntary. The CFTC retains its existing enforcement authority.

Purdum said sportsbooks would still take bets on NBA games if the league walked away from its betting partnerships.

“Do you think that there would be less harassment of athletes or less attempts to manipulate games?” Purdum said. “I certainly don’t.”

Kalshi turned Brooks’ rivalry with James into a pitch for its platform. The NBA’s new deals give Kalshi and Polymarket more ways to reach fans while the league tries to prevent game manipulation and protect players from harassment by bettors.

This article first appeared on Cronkite News and is republished here under a Creative Commons Attribution-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

Source: cronkitenews.azpbs.org

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