Kids News: November 13 ‘end of the world’ prediction fail: today’s scientists explain why 1960 science got it wrong

In 1960, researchers predicted the human-dominated world would effectively end on Friday, November 13, 2026.

Two days later, we’re all still here, and what they forecast probably won’t ever happen or not the way it was once imagined. So why did they think we were done for back then?

Sixty-six years ago, University of Illinois physicist Professor Heinz von Foerster released his analysis of global population trends. Published in the journal Science, the learned professor argued the world would run out of space for all the people.

At the time, populations across the world were exploding. World peace had (largely) been achieved under the United Nations. Returned World War II soldiers had settled down and started families.

Professor von Foerster wasn’t worried about food production. New scientific developments were turning oil into fertiliser* and technological advances were leading to really efficient farm equipment.

“Our great-great-grandchildren will not starve,” Prof von Foerster argued. “They will be squeezed to death.”

But thankfully he wasn’t right – so what changed our species’ trajectory*?

The United Nations estimates the world population to now be at least 8.3 billion.

But instead of overpopulation, developed nations are now far more worried about collapsing birthrates.

And while access to housing has become an almost global crisis, and housing shortages are very real in countries like Australia, the problem is financial: it’s simply become too expensive for many people to raise a child.

Which is why, some six and a half decades later, the same magazine, Science, published a rethink last month.

“ … it is important to understand why this prediction failed, why it once appeared compelling, and what its failure reveals about mistaking historically contingent* patterns for universal laws,” writes science journalist and contributing correspondent Kai Kupferschmidt.

“Friday the 13th of November 2026 carries no particular significance,” the article continues. It had simply been “a playful jab, as the date was von Foerster’s birthday”.

Homo sapiens appeared on the world stage some 300,000 years ago. It took the species until 1800AD to surpass one billion. But things really started accelerating after that.

It only took another 125 years to crack the two billion mark in 1925. By 1975, the population had passed four billion.

“Unlike physical laws, social patterns are generally shaped by changing circumstances,” the Science article observes.

Professor von Foerster’s research team analysed fertility data from across the world dating back some 2000 years. He then extrapolated* this forward in time, based on humanity’s ability to co-operate to solve agricultural, technical, social and economic challenges.

This rationale* proved to be overly optimistic. We solved many agricultural and technical challenges but not the rest.

Much has been made of the collapse in birth numbers in developed nations around the globe. In the likes of Australia, the US and China, the birthrate is well below the accepted 2.1 children per woman needed to sustain their populations.

Little has been done to effectively address the downward.

US President Donald Trump has promised financial incentives – and even a medal – for couples who have six or more children. Australia’s paid parental leave and early childhood education programs are yet to shift the dial. Likewise, China has been tinkering with tax incentives.

Western University’s Professor Alan MacEachern said while we obviously didn’t wake up on Friday, “squeezed to death”, it was worth considering what that tells us.

“But before simply moving on — prepping for the next doomsday scenario — it is worth asking what we can learn from this one,” Prof MacEachern said.

FUTURE IMPERFECT
Where Professor von Foerster once saw overcrowding, modern researchers now foresee economic collapse.

Other innovations Prof von Foerster failed to account for include the life-extending impacts of improved personal and institutional hygiene, the effectiveness of vaccinations and steady advances in medical care.

That means the world’s population has become older – much, much older. And that’s the temporary driver behind much of the population boom.

Economists have warned for decades that a society top-heavy with the elderly would quickly exceed the capacity of the remaining youngsters to support it. With that scenario now being realised, it is driving current population debates in scientific journals like Science.

But Professor von Foerster’s prediction can’t be considered a complete failure.

“The doomsday date, although largely rhetorical*, drew attention to threats of starvation, resource depletion*, and poverty, which dominated the academic and policy debates of the 1960s,” the Science article notes.

These issues became the subjects of more than a half-century of global research, investment and policy.

And the misreading of current trends presents a timeless lesson.

“The looming threats of technological singularities are not exempt from similar misreadings,” Mr Kupferschmidt’s article concludes.

OTHER DOOMSDAY MISFIRES
“The battle to feed all of humanity is over. In the 1970s and 1980s, hundreds of millions of people will starve to death in spite of any crash programs embarked upon now,” boldly proclaimed biologist Paul Ehrlich in his famous 1968 book, The Population Bomb.

At the time, Ehrlich’s predictions and dire famine warnings triggered international debate about possible mass starvation. He later modified his predictions somewhat but it’s worth noting that World Vision estimates that one million people died in the 1983-1985 Ethiopian famine, according to the United Nations.

Y2K BUG
The year 1999 was filled with global panic as millions around the world feared a minor coding problem in computers would end up being an expensive global catastrophe.

At the time, software was designed to process years using just two digits. IT experts became concerned that when midnight struck, systems would misinterpret the double zeros, leading to widespread failures across financial networks, government databases, hospital equipment and so much more.

Fortunately nothing of the sort happened on January 1, 2000, even though billions of dollars were spent trying to prevent the feared collapse.

Many people spent months preparing for the worst, including emptying supermarket shelves and panic buying basic supplies.

MAYAN CALENDAR
Only a decade later, another wave of doomsday anxiety swept the world, all of it based on an ancient calendar system.

Believers became convinced that the world would end on December 21, 2012, marking the end of the Maya Long Count calendar. This misinterpretation of the date triggered wild theories of Earth potentially being hit by another planet, lethal solar flares, and sudden polar shifts.

Misinformation and panic spread quickly online and people stocked up on survival kits, while one Chinese man went so far as to build his own Noah’s ark-style vessel to give himself a chance of survival.

Precisely nothing happened. The calendar simply rolled over, beginning another 5,125-year cycle.

POLL

GLOSSARY

• fertiliser: a natural or chemical substance added to soil to help plants and crops grow better
• trajectory: the path or direction followed by an object moving through space, or the development of an event over time
• rationale: the reasons or logical basis supporting a particular belief or action
• extrapolated: estimated or calculated future trends by analysing already established facts and past data
• contingent: relying on or dependent on specific events, requirements, or situations happening first
• editorial: an opinion piece expressing the stance or perspective of a newspaper editor or publisher
• rhetorical: said for effect or to make a point rather than meant to be taken literally
• depletion: the severe reduction or exhausting of available supplies and natural assets
• technological singularities: hypothetical future moments when innovation creates unpredictable changes to society
• famine: a severe shortage of food across a region leading to widespread hunger and malnutrition
• catastrophe: an unexpected event bringing enormous destruction, hardship, or suffering

EXTRA READING

Why dub a glacier ‘Doomsday’?
World on watch for ‘Super El Nino’
Humans can save dying wildlife

QUICK QUIZ

1. What did the physicist predict would happen in 2026?
2. What are developed countries doing to manage decline in birth rates?
3. List three doomsday theories mentioned in the article?
4. When is Heinz von Foerster’s birthday?
5. What was Paul Ehlrich’s prediction?

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CLASSROOM ACTIVITIES
1. Population problems
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VCOP ACTIVITY
Grammar and VCOP
The glossary of terms helps you to understand and learn the ambitious vocabulary being used in the article. Can you use the words outlined in the glossary to create new sentences? Challenge yourself to include other VCOP (vocabulary, connectives, openers and punctuation) elements in your sentence/s. Have another look through the article, can you find any other Wow Words not outlined in the glossary?