JRC makes climate risk data for Europe’s regions available through a single dashboard

Projections resulting from modelling of climate risk for different levels of global warming, are now integrated at the JRC-run Risk Data Hub on disasters risk and loss, and available publicly under a single dashboard.

The climate risk data – for 1 366 regions in the EU, Norway, Switzerland and the UK, excluding the outermost regions – are provided through the JRC Territorial Risk Assessment of Climate in Europe (TRACE). The information drills down to small regions with 150,000 to 800,000 inhabitants (known as NUTS 3 level in the EU territorial classification).

TRACE has informed the impact assessment of the European Commission’s Climate Resilience Framework, this week ‘s new legislative proposal for stronger anticipation, preparedness and management of climate risks.

TRACE data and the JRC Risk Data Hub can also support the European Climate Viewer, a new digital tool developed by the Commission’s Directorate-General for Climate Action, under the non-legislative package of the framework. Together, these tools strengthen awareness of climate risks and provide an evidence base for adaptation and resilience planning across Europe.

Which data for territorial risk assessment of the climate?

Preparing for climate change requires knowing which risks a territory faces and how these could change as the climate warms. TRACE is the regional assessment of the JRC’s PESETA programme on climate risks analysis, extending the scope to include regional asymmetries, introducing a 4° C warming scenario and adding new areas of impact.

Each impact combines climate hazard, exposure and vulnerability. The assessment brings together expertise in climate science, hydrology, epidemiology, air quality, ecosystems, economics and territorial analysis.

TRACE covers three categories of impacts related to climate change, quantifying

mortality rates from heat, cold and poor air quality
the share of population exposed to hazards
the direct economic damage from a broad range of climate hazards.

The data are organised by impact analysis on hazards associated with air quality, coastal ecosystems, coastal floods, droughts, heat impacts on transport infrastructure, river floods, temperature mortality, water scarcity, wildifires and wind. The categorisation can help users to focus on the risks that matter most for their territory.

All regions are assessed in consistent manner applying climate projections, socioeconomic data and modelling approach. This makes the results directly comparable across regions, countries, hazards and warming levels..

In the dashboard, users can select a region, a type of impact and a warming level, and see how the risk compares with other regions and how it changes as the climate warms. The underlying data can also be downloaded for further analysis under the tab “Table”.

Regional differences as starting point for adaptation planning

Climate risks differ strongly across Europe. Heat, drought and wildfires weigh most on Southern and Eastern Europe, while Western and Northern Europe are more exposed to floods, storms and rising seas, particularly along the coast. Large differences also exist within countries. They result hidden when average national and European averages are calculated, but they become visible when risks are assessed at territorial level.

This regional detail matters because many adaptation measures are planned and carried out by regional and local authorities. The data can support regional and national climate risk assessments and adaptation plans, and help prioritise investments in protection and preparedness. They can also inform risk management in sectors such as infrastructure, health and insurance.

Through the Risk Data Hub, authorities at all levels, as well as businesses, researchers and citizens can explore the risks in their own territory, compare them with other regions, and use the data to target adaptation where it is most needed.

Climate scenarios and impact

TRACE spans the full range of plausible climate futures. For mid-century, the data show the risks at global warming of 1.5°, 2° and 3°C. For the end of the century, impacts are estimated for 1.5°, 2°, 3° and 4°C. These warming levels range from the Paris Agreement goal to unmitigated climate change. This knowledge allows users to prepare for risks that are already unavoidable and high-end outcomes that cannot be ruled out.

The data show the total, compounded burden that climate hazards would place on society at each level of warming, not merely from the climate change level. This is the burden that households, businesses, health systems and public budgets would have to bear and that adaptation planning needs to address. The data assume today’s levels of vulnerability and adaptation and shows where risks would concentrate without further adaptation, providing a reference for planning adaptation measures.

Background

The Risk Data Hub was developed by the JRC in partnership with the Commission’s Directorates-General European Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid Operations, and Climate Action. The Hub is an online platform bringing together European data on hazards, exposure, vulnerability and recorded disaster losses. Through interactive maps and dashboards, it makes scientific evidence accessible to policymakers and practitioners, supporting disaster risk assessment, preparedness and climate adaptation at national and regional levels.

TRACE data and its dashboard are key outputs of two JRC portfolios

Risks, anticipation and resilience, whichfocuses on systemic and emerging risks, covering every phase of risk management, from prevention to recovery, and helping to shape EU’s future approach to crisis management
Climate adaptation and water resilience, which supports climate adaptation and better water management, providing advice on the European Climate Adaptation Plan, the Water Resilience Strategy and the Oceans Pact.