We are almost at the halfway point of the fantasy football season. Yes, I know that is insane. It feels like just yesterday it was Week 1, but you know what they say. Time flies when you’re having fun.
This week’s slate looks awesome. We have a ton of possible shootouts. Some games with large spreads where some offenses could just pile on the points. I won’t keep you from the matchups and action.
Let’s get into it. Welcome to the Week 8 Primer. Enjoy.
CAR vs. GB | BAL vs. BUF | TEN vs. CIN | ARI vs. DAL | MIN vs. DET | LV vs. NYJ | CLE vs. PIT | ATL vs. TB | IND vs. JAC | LAC vs. LAR | KC vs. DEN | NE vs. MIA | PHI vs. WAS | CHI vs. SEA
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Fantasy Football Primer: Week 8
Carolina Panthers vs. Green Bay Packers
Panthers Players & Weekly Rankings
Packers Players & Weekly Rankings
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
*Matthew Golden has been listed as questionable this week, but he is expected to play. Golden didn’t practice until Friday (shoulder/foot), when he managed a limited practice session.*
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Jordan Love is the QB12 in fantasy points per game. It was nice to see that in Josh Jacobs‘ first game back, Green Bay didn’t dial back their passing rate. In Weeks 1-6, Green Bay had a 65.9% pass rate, and last week they actually bumped it a tad higher to 70.8%. Overall, they have the second-best passing rate in the NFL. Among 34 qualifying passers, Love has still struggled with accuracy, ranking 22nd in passing success rate and 28th in catchable target rate, but he is also tenth in hero throw rate and 14th in passing touchdown rate. This week, Love will have a tougher matchup. Since Week 4, Carolina has continued to field a strong pass defense, allowing the 11th-fewest yards per attempt, the eighth-lowest passing touchdown rate, and the 13th-lowest passing success rate. Love has the volume, the talent, and the skilled receivers to overcome a strong pass defense.
Last week, in his first game back, Josh Jacobs was the RB7 in fantasy scoring. He played 53.8% of the snaps with 57.9% of the rushing workload, a 43.5% route share, and a 15.6% target share. Jacobs had an 11.1% explosive run rate, 1.45 yards after contact per attempt, and a 9% missed tackle rate. Those aren’t amazing numbers (outside of the explosive run rate), but it’s a one-game sample, so I’m not freaking out. Jacobs finished with 16 touches and 91 total yards. It was a more substantial workload than I thought he’d get in his first game back, but five of those touches were receptions. His 11 carries were about what I thought he would see. Jacobs should have another strong game this week. Since Week 3, Carolina has allowed the tenth-highest explosive run rate, the eighth-highest rushing success rate, and the seventh-most yards after contact per attempt.
Tetairoa McMillan is the WR13 in fantasy points per game. In the four games he has played with Jalen Coker as a full-time player, McMillan has had a 21.5% target share with 2.19 YPRR, four red zone targets, six deep targets, and a 27.9% first-read share. This week McMillan faces a Green Bay defense that has the third-highest two-high rate in the NFL (66.3%). In those four games with Coker as a full-go, McMillan has had a 21% TPRR and 2.67 YPRR against two high. McMillan has a nice shot at a bounce-back game this week against a Green Bay secondary that (since Week 3) has allowed the fifth-most receiving fantasy points per game while ranking 15th in yards per target allowed to perimeter wide receivers.
Jalen Coker didn’t have the massive game last week that I was projecting, as Carolina’s passing offense cratered as Bryce Young fell back to Earth. Coker could have a bounce-back outing this week. In his four full games this season, Coker has had a 22.2% target share with 2.40 YPRR, five red zone targets, eight deep targets, and a 30.2% first-read share. Overall, he is the WR22 in fantasy points per game. This week, Coker faces a Green Bay defense that has the third-highest two-high rate in the NFL (66.3%). In those four full games, against two-high, Coker has had a 23% TPRR with 1.85 YPRR. Bryce Young will have to look like his early-season form for this passing attack to have bite again, but it’s possible. Since Week 3, Green Bay has allowed the fifth-most receiving fantasy points per game while ranking 15th in yards per target allowed to perimeter wide receivers.
Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider
Let’s fill out those flex spots.
Even after last week’s stinker, Bryce Young is the QB8 in fantasy points per game. Last week, Young completed only 51.8% of his passes with 163 passing yards (6.4 yards per attempt), a 69.6% catchable throw rate, and two picks. Overall, Young (among 34 qualifying passers) is 13th in yards per attempt, 19th in passing success rate, 26th in catchable throw rate, and 12th in hero throw rate. If Young is going to bounce back this week, he’ll have to do so against a solid Green Bay pass defense. Since Week 3, Green Bay has allowed the 12th-fewest yards per attempt, the fourth-lowest passing touchdown rate, and the seventh-lowest CPOE. Green Bay during that stretch also has had the 12th-lowest pressure rate, so Young should have clean pockets this week. It’s a good litmus test matchup to see if Young has turned back into a pumpkin prior to Halloween.
CAR vs. GB | BAL vs. BUF | TEN vs. CIN | ARI vs. DAL | MIN vs. DET | LV vs. NYJ | CLE vs. PIT | ATL vs. TB | IND vs. JAC | LAC vs. LAR | KC vs. DEN | NE vs. MIA | PHI vs. WAS | CHI vs. SEA
Baltimore Ravens vs. Buffalo Bills
Ravens Players & Weekly Rankings
Bills Players & Weekly Rankings
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
*Lamar Jackson practiced in full all week and doesn’t carry an injury designation into Week 8.*
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
DJ Moore (shoulder) practiced on a limited basis all week. He has been listed as questionable, but he is expected to play this week. In his two full games this season, Moore has had a 30.9% target share, 3.63 YPRR, 0.174 FD/RR, and a 33.3% first-read share. In those two contests, he racked up two red zone targets and four deep targets. No matter how you slice it, that’s elite usage for a wide receiver. Moore is a strong WR2 this week with WR1 upside. Over their last five games, Baltimore has allowed the third-most yards per target and the sixth-most fantasy points per opportunity to perimeter wide receivers.
Khalil Shakir might be the WR45 in fantasy points per game, but in his last three games, he has had at least 11 PPR points in each game. In those three games, Shakir has had an 18.8% target share with 2.68 YPRR, two red zone targets, one deep target, and a 24.1% first-read share. Baltimore has the fifth-highest rate of two-high (62.4%). Against two-high, Shakir has a 21% TPRR and 2.07 YPRR. Shakir is a strong flex this week against a Baltimore pass defense that, across their last five games, has allowed the tenth-most yards per target and the seventh-most receiving fantasy points per game to slot receivers. DJ Moore’s return could hinder Shakir’s ceiling this week, but he should still return a nice stat line.
Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider
Let’s fill out those flex spots.
Last week, Ja’Kobi Lane was second on the team with a 14.7% target share while having a 65% route share. Lane finished with 25 receiving yards (0.96 YPRR), two red zone targets, and a 15.4% first-read share (second on the team). Lane is a viable flex option this week. Over the last five weeks, Buffalo has allowed the second-most receiving fantasy points per game and the fourth-most fantasy points per opportunity to perimeter wide receivers.
Before Buffalo’s bye, Dalton Kincaid bounced back (some) with his first game with at least double-digit PPR points since Week 2. Kincaid is the TE11 in fantasy points per game. Really, it’s off the strength of those opening two games of the season. Kincaid has a 61.5% route share, a 17% target share, 2.56 YPRR, five red zone targets, three deep targets, and a 21.2% first-read share. It’s possible that Kincaid has a solid game this week, but the coverage structure isn’t in his favor. Baltimore has the fifth-highest rate of two-high (62.4%). Against two-high, Kincaid’s TPRR has fallen to 19%, and his YPRR sits at 1.23. Across their last five games, Baltimore is 18th in yards per target allowed to tight ends while surrendering the fourth-most fantasy points per opportunity to the position. Kincaid has a wide range of outcomes this week.
Mark Andrews is the TE28 in fantasy points per game and hasn’t had at least double-digit PPR points since Week 4. Andrews has a 66.1% route share, an 18.3% target share with 1.29 YPRR, five red zone targets, two deep targets, and a 20.5% first-read share. I have almost no confidence in Andrews at this point, but if you’re desperate, he could have a mild bounce-back game this week. Across their last five games, Buffalo has allowed the fourth-most yards per target and the 13th-most fantasy points per opportunity to tight ends. If he has a decent game, I won’t be surprised, but I also won’t be shocked if Andrews disappoints yet again against Buffalo.
Concerning Starts & Players to Fade
Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.
N/A
CAR vs. GB | BAL vs. BUF | TEN vs. CIN | ARI vs. DAL | MIN vs. DET | LV vs. NYJ | CLE vs. PIT | ATL vs. TB | IND vs. JAC | LAC vs. LAR | KC vs. DEN | NE vs. MIA | PHI vs. WAS | CHI vs. SEA
Tennessee Titans vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Titans Players & Weekly Rankings
Bengals Players & Weekly Rankings
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Tony Pollard was a fantasy point scoring behemoth last week as the RB1 overall in fantasy. Pollard finished with 28 touches, 155 total yards, and three scores. It was an insane performance. Since Week 2, Pollard has averaged 19.2 touches and 82.3 total yards. Over the last two games, his playing time has increased with a 74.8% snap rate, 83% of the rushing workload, and a 37.5% route share (5.7% target share). Pollard has been running strong this season. Among 42 qualifying backs, Pollard is 16th in explosive run rate and tenth in yards after contact per attempt. He could have another nice stat line this week. Across their last five games, Cincy has allowed the highest explosive run rate, the fourth-most rushing yards over expectation per attempt, and the 12th-most yards after contact per attempt. Pollard is an RB2 with upside.
Chase Brown has had such a poor run out this season as the RB20 in fantasy points per game. He has one touchdown this season and is the RB12 in expected fantasy points per game. Overall, he has averaged 18.4 touches and 71.3 total yards. He has been splitting the early-down work with Samaje Perine over the last two games, while last week his snap rate jumped back to 74.5% as he also had a 59.4% route share (16.7% target share). Over the last two games, he has had a 55% rushing share while splitting the red zone work with Perine evenly (both backs have two red zone rushing attempts). This is despite Brown having a 70% snap share during that span inside the 20-yard line. Among 42 qualifying backs, Brown is 25th in yards after contact per attempt and 32nd in missed tackle rate, but his offensive line has done him no favors as he is also 33rd in yards before contact per attempt. This could be the “get right” game for Brown. Across their last five games, Tennessee has allowed the fourth-highest explosive run rate, the fifth-highest rushing success rate, and the seventh-highest yards before contact per attempt.
Wan’Dale Robinson is the WR54 in fantasy points per game with three outings this season with at least 11 PPR points. Robinson has a 20.2% target share with 1.15 YPRR, eight red zone targets, four deep targets, and a 25.9% first-read share. His FD/RR is a solid 0.084. Robinson could have a standout week if Cam Ward can get his act together. Cincy has been bleeding out production to slot receivers. Across their last five games, Cincy has allowed the fifth-most yards per target, the most fantasy points per opportunity, and the most receiving touchdowns (tied) to slot receivers.
Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider
Let’s fill out those flex spots.
Samaje Perine is a viable flex this week. Over the last two games, Perine has split the red zone work evenly with Chase Brown (two rushing attempts each) while averaging ten touches and 47 total yards. Perine has mustered a decent 10.3% explosive run rate and 2.29 yards after contact per attempt this season. Tennessee has fielded a putrid run defense recently. Across their last five games, Tennessee has allowed the fourth-highest explosive run rate, the fifth-highest rushing success rate, and the seventh-highest yards before contact per attempt. If Perine scores a touchdown with 10-12 touches this week, he could easily be a nice flex play.
Concerning Starts & Players to Fade
Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.
Cam Ward still barely has a pulse for fantasy as the QB36 in fantasy points per game. He has failed to eclipse 12 fantasy points in five games this season. Among 34 qualifying passers, he is 33rd in yards per attempt, 28th in passing success rate, and 33rd in passing touchdown rate and fantasy points per dropback. Until any of this changes, I’m not starting Ward in any format. He’s still live to get benched in any game until this level of play changes.
Carnell Tate remains a volatile receiver because of the play of Cam Ward as the WR34 in fantasy points per game. Tate has two games with at least 19 PPR points, but he also has four outings where he has failed to even have double-digit PPR points. I worry that Tate will have another quiet game this week because of DJ Turner shadowing him. Turner has followed Chris Bell, DK Metcalf, Emeka Egbuka, and Parker Washington on 63.6-82.6% of their routes. None of those receivers surpassed 53 receiving yards in Turner’s coverage, and only Metcalf scored a touchdown. That touchdown also was only because Turner collided with another Cincy player during the play, which left Metcalf wide open. Tate has a 24.5% target share with 2.20 YPRR, three red zone targets, seven deep targets, and a 32.4% first-read share. Sit Tate this week. I expect Turner to shut him down.
CAR vs. GB | BAL vs. BUF | TEN vs. CIN | ARI vs. DAL | MIN vs. DET | LV vs. NYJ | CLE vs. PIT | ATL vs. TB | IND vs. JAC | LAC vs. LAR | KC vs. DEN | NE vs. MIA | PHI vs. WAS | CHI vs. SEA
Arizona Cardinals vs. Dallas Cowboys
Cardinals Players & Weekly Rankings
Cowboys Players & Weekly Rankings
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Dallas has been BLEEDING out production to the slot all season. Kendrick Bourne could be the next slot receiver to eat them alive this week. Since Week 5, Bourne has had one game with at least 12 PPR points while seeing a 15.3% target share with 1.45 YPRR, three red zone targets, one deep target, and a 16.7% first-read share. In their last five games, Dallas has allowed the most yards per target, the most receiving yards, and the ninth-most fantasy points per opportunity to slot receivers. Makai Lemon was the WR13 in weekly scoring last week against this defense.
Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider
Let’s fill out those flex spots.
Jacoby Brissett is the QB22 in fantasy points per game with two outings this season with at least 25 fantasy points. Among 34 qualifying passers, Brissett is 32nd in yards per attempt, 18th in passing success rate, tenth in highly accurate throw rate, and 14th in catchable target rate. Brissett could return to the friendly confines of QB1 land this week. Across their last five games, Dallas has allowed the sixth-most yards per attempt, the 14th-highest passing touchdown rate, the sixth-highest CPOE, and the sixth-most EPA per dropback.
George Pickens is the WR24 in fantasy points per game with at least 15 PPR points in two of his last three games. I’m projecting a milder stat line this week for Pickens. Yes, you guessed it. Arizona is a two-high, heavy pass defense. Pickens has a 20.5% target share with 2.00 YPRR, six red zone targets, nine deep targets, and a 23.1% first-read share. Arizona has the highest two-high rate in the NFL (70.5%). Against two high, Pickens’ TPRR drops off a map from 35% (against single high) to 17%, and his YPRR falls from 2.92 to 1.51. Working in his favor is the fact that Arizona has been horrible at defending perimeter wide receivers, which could help counteract Pickens’ coverage woes. In their last five games, Arizona has allowed the most yards per target and the third-most fantasy points per opportunity to perimeter wide receivers. Pickens could still be a decent WR2 this week, but this doesn’t look like a blow-up spot.
Michael Wilson has been struggling recently. Wilson is still the WR32 in fantasy points per game, but he hasn’t managed more than 12 PPR points since Marvin Harrison Jr.‘s departure from Arizona. Since Week 5, he has had a 16% target share with 1.01 YPRR, three red zone targets, four deep targets, and a 17.8% first-read share. He hasn’t finished with more than 55 receiving yards in any of these three games. Hopefully, he breaks out of the funk this week. Over their last five games, Dallas has allowed the 12th-most receiving fantasy points per game and the eighth-most fantasy points per opportunity to perimeter wide receivers. There’s a wide range of outcomes for Wilson this week, which makes him difficult to trust as anything more than a flex with upside.
Ryan Flournoy has replaced Jake Ferguson as the third wheel in the Dallas passing attack. Since Week 5, Flournoy has had a 13.8% target share, 1.96 YPRR, two red zone targets, one deep target, and a 12.2% first-read share. Arizona has the highest two-high rate in the NFL (70.5%). Since Week 5, against two-high, Flournoy has seen his TPRR increase from 14% to 18% while posting 1.78 YPRR. Flournoy is a solid flex option this week. In their last five games, Arizona has allowed the eighth-most yards per target and the sixth-most fantasy points per opportunity to slot receivers.
Concerning Starts & Players to Fade
Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.
Jeremiyah Love opened this week with a limited practice (ankle). I’ll update his outlook on Friday.
I’ll dive into Tyler Allegier‘s outlook on Friday. It’ll depend upon Jeremiyah Love‘s possible return this week. Love opened this week with a limited practice (ankle). Allgeier also opened this week with a DNP (toe), so there’s plenty of uncertainty swirling around this backfield for Week 8.
Over the last two games, Jake Ferguson‘s usage has been worrisome. Since Week 6, he has had a 54.1% snap rate, a 51.2% route share, a 4.9% target share, and only one first-read target. Yes, across their last five games, Arizona has allowed the tenth-most yards per target and the seventh-most fantasy points per opportunity to tight ends, so Ferguson is on the fringe of streaming tight end options. I’m not starting him this week unless you truly are out of options, though.
CAR vs. GB | BAL vs. BUF | TEN vs. CIN | ARI vs. DAL | MIN vs. DET | LV vs. NYJ | CLE vs. PIT | ATL vs. TB | IND vs. JAC | LAC vs. LAR | KC vs. DEN | NE vs. MIA | PHI vs. WAS | CHI vs. SEA
Source: www.fantasypros.com
