The College Football Playoff field appears to have stabilized with the committee’s entire top 10 winning this weekend. The higher-ranked team won in all five Top-25 matchups.
So that leaves little room for speculation. Instead, we will just quibble over the possible seeding and examine who still harbors CFP chances outside the top 10.
Looming debate: Big Ten No. 3 vs. Big 12 No. 2/3
With two regular-season games left, the race for the final at-large spot is heating up, and the rhetoric surely will follow. It appears that the SEC will get at least three and likely four slots, while the other power conferences have a decent shot at two apiece, plus Notre Dame and the Group of 6’s top team.
The CFP field today would include Notre Dame (independent); UCLA and Indiana from the Big Ten; Georgia, Alabama, Texas and Tennessee from the SEC; Utah and Texas Tech from the Big 12; and Miami from the ACC. The CFP bubble primarily consists of Wake Forest (ACC), BYU (Big 12), Iowa (Big Ten) and Oregon (Big Ten). For this debate, let’s focus on BYU vs. Iowa vs. Oregon.
BYU (8-2) has stayed in the top 12 for most of the season but has slipped a bit since knocking off Notre Dame on Oct. 17. The Cougars have dropped two of their last four games: at No. 2 Utah (28-20) and at 5-5 UCF (39-31). Between those losses was a 27-20 win against Arizona State (6-4). The Cougars put up a strong performance in a 28-7 win against Baylor (6-4) on Saturday.
Iowa (8-2) leads the nation in scoring defense at 11.7 points per game and has allowed more than 13 points just three times this season. The Hawkeyes outscored Wisconsin, Northwestern and Purdue by a combined 82-17 on their current three-game winning streak. Iowa has a competent offense and is justifiably in the discussion for a CFP berth.
Since firing offensive coordinator Drew Mehringer, the Oregon offense has looked more like the powerhouse unit we all expected entering the season. In Mehringer’s final three games, Oregon (7-3) scored 15 points against UCLA (loss), 17 points against Nebraska (win) and 10 points at Illinois (loss). Since the change, the Ducks have averaged 35.3 points per game in victories against Northwestern, Ohio State and Michigan.
All three have “bad losses” — Iowa at Minnesota (13-10), BYU to UCF (39-31) and Oregon to Illinois (21-10) and Oklahoma State (36-31). The Ducks might be the strongest of the three but have three losses. But looking ahead, some top-10 team is going to get upset in the next two weeks. If so, it will be interesting to see which one of these three fills that spot.
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Taps for CFP hopefuls
To the soundtrack of Sarah McLachlan’s “Angel,” we offer a heartfelt adieu to the following teams’ CFP hopes.
No. 11 Kentucky (7-3) — The loss to Florida is just too much to overcome. Had the Wildcats been more competitive against Alabama and Tennessee, perhaps they could have stayed in the hunt.
No. 14 Houston (7-3) — What a painful way to go down with a 10-point loss at Colorado (4-6).
No. 18 USC (7-3) — The Trojans fell 27-13 at Indiana on Saturday. With previous losses to Oregon and Wisconsin, the Trojans are looking at a nice, quick trip to either the Alamo Bowl again or perhaps the Las Vegas Bowl.
No. 23 Arizona (7-3) — The Wildcats competed in one of the season’s most exciting games against Utah, but a questionable fourth-down call before the two-minute timeout proved costly.
SMU/Duke (7-3) — Neither team was even ranked by the CFP, but a third loss sends them both to the ACC’s top bowl circuit consisting of the Gator, Holiday and Pop-Tarts bowls.
My No. 1 seed: Georgia. It should be undisputed at this point. The Bulldogs are the best team in the country and are rolling toward another SEC championship.
Rising: UCLA. It’s time to recognize the Bruins as a championship-caliber team. UCLA is as physical as any traditional Big Ten power and has speed to match. While the schedule may lack brand power, the Bruins have won every game but one by at least 8 points.
Falling: Alabama. Nobody disputes that Alabama is a championship contender, but if the selection committee treats its win over Vanderbilt as significant, Indiana’s Curt Cignetti might send another strongly worded tweet. And rightly so.
Best hypothetical first-round matchup: Wake Forest at Indiana. When the 12-team CFP was finalized before the 2024 season, you’d get arrested for saying this would take place in 2026.
Just missed: Ohio State. The Buckeyes aren’t currently close to getting in a 12-team field, but they still have talent everywhere and the most explosive receiver in Big Ten history.
Team to watch in a 24-team bracket: Ole Miss. With quarterback Trinidad Chambliss, the Rebels would scare any team they face.
Group of 6 bid watch: Welcome to the CFP, Boise State. With New Mexico’s loss and the Broncos’ win over Oregon State, Boise State might need two losses to fall out of the Playoff.
One CFP story to watch next weekend: The Big Ten’s CFP contenders all have treacherous road trips: UCLA at Michigan (5-5), Indiana at Washington (6-4), Iowa at Illinois (6-4), Oregon at Michigan State (3-7) and Ohio State at Nebraska (6-4). None of the home teams are ranked, but all are dangerous.
Source: www.nytimes.com
