New Delhi:
There may be a big fall in the prices of crude oil in the international market in the coming time. According to a report by State Bank of India (SBI), crude oil prices may fall to around $ 70 per barrel in the year 2027. If this happens then oil importing countries like India can get big relief. Due to this, there may also be a possibility of reduction in the prices of petrol and diesel in the country. However, whether its benefits will reach the common consumers or not will also depend on many other factors.
Why can crude oil become cheaper?
In the SBI report, many reasons have been given for the fall in crude oil prices. If the conflict between America and Iran subsides, the supply of crude oil from West Asia may increase. Apart from this, oil exports from the countries of West Asia are expected to increase and the supply pressure in the global oil market is expected to reduce. This will put pressure on crude oil prices in the international market and prices may come down.
Expectation of softening of prices in the next 10 days also
In its report, SBI has also estimated the prices of crude oil on the basis of LTSM deep learning model. According to this, the prices of Brent crude may soften in the next 10 days. During this period its average price is estimated to be around $87 per barrel. LTSM is a type of artificial intelligence based technique, which helps in predicting future trends by analyzing past and sequential data.
Will the prices of petrol and diesel also reduce?
India fulfills a major part of its needs through import of crude oil. In such a situation, the country’s import bill may reduce due to oil becoming cheaper in the international market. This can also help in controlling inflation. If there is a big fall in the prices of crude oil, there may be scope for reducing the prices of petrol and diesel. However, this does not directly mean that as soon as oil becomes cheaper in the international market, the prices of petrol and diesel will also reduce. Exchange rates of rupee and dollar, taxes, refining costs and decisions of oil companies also play an important role in determining domestic prices.
Relief can also be provided on inflation
Estimates regarding inflation have also been made in the SBI report. For the first time in the new series, retail inflation crossed 6 percent in October 2026 and reached 6.09 percent. This is more than the upper tolerance limit of 6 percent of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). SBI estimates that the inflation rate may remain above 6 percent in the next month also. However, after this it is expected to start declining.
RBI may increase repo rate in December
SBI believes that stability in rupee and increase in foreign investment may reduce the need for RBI to make a big increase in interest rates. According to the report, instead of a big increase of 50 basis points in the repo rate in December’s monetary policy meeting, there is a greater possibility of an increase of 25 basis points. However, it would not be appropriate to make another increase in February, because by then the Union Budget would also have been presented. The report also says that since November 6, foreign investment worth $7.65 billion has come into India. RBI’s efforts to keep the rupee stable have also seen a positive effect.
Source: ndtv.in
