A tale of two midterm election voter turnout trends in the South : NPR

Democratic victories in the South this year were driven just as much by who showed up to vote as who stayed home, according to an NPR analysis of turnout data.

Midterm elections normally have lower voter participation than presidential contests. But from Louisiana to the Carolinas, counties that voted for former Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024 came closer to matching — and in some cases exceeding — presidential turnout. At the same time, counties won by President Trump saw a much sharper decline in turnout and fewer Republican votes.

In six southern states — Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina — turnout dropped by 19% in Harris-won counties compared to 26% in Trump-won counties. (In Louisiana, counties are called parishes).

Across the South, the six states analyzed swung an average of 22 points towards Democrats, larger than the national swing of about 14.5 points.

This differential turnout was a key factor in Democrats flipping Senate seats in North Carolina, South Carolina and Mississippi, and contributed to the closer-than-expected margin in Louisiana’s Senate race.

In Mississippi, Democrat Scott Colom outperformed Harris, earning roughly 8,100 more votes than she did in 2024. Colom’s margin over incumbent Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith is just over 5,600 votes as final ballots are being tallied.

Democratic Senate nominees in those six states earned more raw votes than Harris in 170 counties. On the flip side, the Republican nominees garnered hundreds of thousands fewer votes than Trump.

Black voters showed up

In special elections and primaries leading up to the midterms, voting data and polls showed a surge in Black voter participation, spurred in part by a Supreme Court decision that gutted part of the Voting Rights Act.

The Louisiana v. Callais decision led to changed congressional maps across the South, including Tennessee, Alabama, Louisiana and North Carolina. After redrawing boundary lines in a way that aimed to elect an 11-3 Republican majority delegation, North Carolina Democrats are now on track to hold an 11-3 majority.