2026 NAIA Football Playoff Bubble: Final Field Projection

The 2026 NAIA football regular season is complete, and now comes the difficult part: determining which teams will receive the final invitations to the Football Championship Series. Join VSN Sunday Night at 6:30 ET / 5:30 CT for NAIA Football with Dannelly and Donley as we preview the field and watch along as the postseason field of 20 teams is announced.

With 13 automatic qualifiers and seven at-large berths available, the National Selection Committee has plenty to consider following an eventful final Saturday.

Four at-large positions appear relatively secure, with Campbellsville, Dordt, Friends and Baker in strong positions to receive invitations. That leaves three spots and a collection of teams with very different arguments for postseason inclusion.

Some have stronger overall records. Others have better analytical rankings. A few own significant head-to-head victories, while others will be asking the committee to look beyond disappointing losses.

For this analysis, Victory Sports Network has recalculated the Projected Football Performance Index (FPI) using the complete 2026 regular-season results. These are VSN projections, not official NAIA numbers. The calculation follows the NAIA scoring grid, accounting for game results, opponent winning percentages and home-versus-away location, with only NAIA opponents counting toward the index.

Here is a closer look at eight teams competing for the final postseason opportunities.

Eastern Oregon (8-2)

West ARC: No. 5 | Projected FPI: 25.33 (No. 20) | Massey: No. 23

Why They’re In: Eastern Oregon may have done more to improve its postseason standing Saturday than any other bubble team. The Mountaineers defeated Carroll College 26-20 in overtime, collecting a critical victory over a team that entered the weekend ahead of them in both the West ARC and national rankings. The victory gives Eastern Oregon an 8-2 record and a compelling head-to-head argument for moving ahead of Carroll in the final regional ARC evaluation.

The Mountaineers also made one of the largest gains among the bubble teams in our recalculated FPI, moving from 24.00 to a Projected FPI of 25.33. That places Eastern Oregon No. 20 nationally in the VSN projection. I would expect the Mountaineers to move into the No. 4 position in the final West ARC. Plus, it’s tough to argue against the inclusion of a team whose only losses are to the No. 1 team in the country.

Why They Could Be Out: Eastern Oregon entered Saturday with an 0-2 record against ARC-ranked opponents, and its overall analytical profile remains weaker than several competing teams. While both losses are to COI, the Mountaineers were fifth in the West ARC entering the weekend, and their Massey ranking of No. 23 trailed Northwestern, Midland, Carroll and Keiser. They should move ahead of Northwestern and Carroll.

The committee will have to decide how much weight to give one significant late-season victory against a broader résumé that lacks other major wins.

My Take: Eastern Oregon played its way into serious contention. The victory over Carroll should move the Mountaineers ahead of the Saints and put them in position to claim one of the final at-large selections. I have Eastern Oregon in the field.

Midland (9-2)

North ARC: No. 6 | Projected FPI: 26.09 (No. 19) | Massey: No. 16

Why They’re In: Midland has one of the most interesting résumés of any bubble team. The Warriors finished 9-2 after escaping Concordia 42-41 on Saturday and own a 28-16 victory over Northwestern earlier this season.

That head-to-head result could carry considerable importance following Northwestern’s 66-21 loss to Dordt. Midland’s No. 16 Massey ranking entering the weekend also compares favorably with several competing at-large candidates.

The Warriors have a Projected FPI of 26.09, placing them No. 19 nationally. While that isn’t a substantial increase from their previous 26.00, it keeps Midland competitive with the other North ARC bubble teams.

Why They Could Be Out: Midland’s two losses came against Dordt and Morningside, both postseason-bound programs, but the margins weren’t particularly close. Dordt defeated Midland 42-17, while Morningside won 40-24.

The Warriors were also just 1-2 against ARC-ranked opponents entering the weekend. Their narrow escape against Concordia probably won’t add much to the résumé, and Midland entered the final weekend behind Northwestern in the North ARC.

Midland’s Projected FPI also trails both Taylor and McPherson, despite the Warriors holding stronger Massey rankings than those teams.

My Take: Midland has a legitimate argument for inclusion. I have a difficult time placing Northwestern ahead of the Warriors after Saturday when considering Midland’s head-to-head victory and Northwestern’s blowout loss to Dordt. Midland escaped Concordia by 1 point, but a win is a win. Midland is one of my strongest candidates for a final at-large spot.

Northwestern (8-3)

North ARC: No. 5 | Projected FPI: 26.10 (No. 18) | Massey: No. 13 | NSC: No. 12

Why They’re In: Northwestern entered the weekend with a strong analytical résumé and arguably the most valuable individual victory of any team on the bubble.

The Red Raiders defeated Morningside 43-35 on September 5, handing the Mustangs their only loss of the regular season. Northwestern was also ranked No. 12 in the National Selection Committee poll, No. 13 in Massey and No. 5 in the North ARC.

Those rankings suggest the Red Raiders were firmly in the postseason picture before Saturday. Their 26.10 Projected FPI still ranks No. 18 nationally, narrowly ahead of Midland and Eastern Oregon.

Why They Could Be Out: Saturday’s 66-21 loss to Dordt was devastating. Northwestern not only missed an opportunity to secure the GPAC championship and automatic qualification but also suffered a 45-point defeat in its final opportunity to impress the committee.

The Red Raiders now have three losses, including a 28-16 defeat to Midland. That creates an uncomfortable comparison because Midland finished 9-2 and owns the head-to-head victory.

Northwestern also experienced one of the largest declines in our FPI recalculation, dropping from 27.44 to a Projected FPI of 26.10.

My Take: Northwestern presents the committee with a difficult choice. I believe the Morningside victory is too significant to dismiss entirely. However, the loss to Midland and Saturday’s lopsided result against Dordt make the Red Raiders vulnerable.

Northwestern may ultimately benefit from its strong Massey ranking and its position in the previous Selection Committee poll. I currently have the Red Raiders narrowly missing the final at-large position, but this is far from certain.

McPherson (9-2)

Midwest ARC: No. 6 | Projected FPI: 26.27 (No. 17) | Massey: No. 26

Why They’re In: McPherson completed an impressive regular season with a 38-0 victory over Sterling, finishing 9-2. The Bulldogs have a Projected FPI of 26.27, ranking No. 17 nationally and placing them ahead of Northwestern, Midland and Eastern Oregon.

The Bulldogs have demonstrated they can compete with some of the better programs in the KCAC. A narrow 27-24 loss to Southwestern is particularly noteworthy when evaluating McPherson against a conference rival already guaranteed a postseason berth.

Their overall record and Projected FPI give the Bulldogs a strong numerical argument for inclusion.

Why They Could Be Out: The problem is McPherson’s record against the best teams on its schedule. The Bulldogs lost 48-24 to Friends and 27-24 to Southwestern, leaving their only victory over an ARC-ranked opponent coming against Ottawa.

With Southwestern, Friends and Ottawa already positioned to represent the KCAC in the postseason, McPherson would need the committee to select a fourth team from the conference.

The Bulldogs also sit sixth in the Midwest ARC, behind Baker and Friends. Their Massey ranking of No. 26 is significantly weaker than those of several other bubble contenders.

My Take: McPherson has put together a very good season, and the updated FPI strengthens the Bulldogs’ argument. A 9-2 record and a top-20 Projected FPI deserve serious consideration.

However, I still have difficulty justifying McPherson over teams with stronger quality victories and Massey rankings.

Taylor (9-2)

North ARC: No. 7 | Projected FPI: 26.36 (No. 16) | Massey: No. 29

Why They’re In: Taylor closed the regular season with a strong 31-14 victory over Saint Francis (Ind.), improving to 9-2.

The Trojans now have the highest Projected FPI of any team in this bubble discussion at 26.36, ranking No. 16 nationally. That’s an increase from their November 9 FPI of 25.90 and a stronger number than Northwestern, Midland or Eastern Oregon.

Taylor has also overcome adversity during the season, including changes to the official standings resulting from Olivet Nazarene forfeits. The Trojans competed with Indiana Wesleyan in a 38-29 loss, showing they can challenge a nationally ranked opponent.

Why They Could Be Out: Taylor’s other analytical numbers are among the weakest of the bubble teams. The Trojans entered the weekend No. 29 in Massey and seventh in the North ARC, behind both Midland and Northwestern.

Their 1-2 record against ARC-ranked opponents entering Saturday also leaves questions about the strength of their postseason credentials. The lack of a major signature victory could ultimately outweigh their strong record and Projected FPI.

My Take: Taylor’s recalculated FPI makes the Trojans a much more interesting candidate than I initially expected.

I believe Taylor deserves serious consideration, but the seventh-place North ARC ranking and weaker Massey number remain substantial obstacles. I have the Trojans outside the projected field, although they could certainly surprise me.

Keiser (7-3)

East ARC: No. 5 | Projected FPI: 25.22 (No. 21) | Massey: No. 14

Why They’re In: Keiser’s strongest argument comes from its analytical profile. The Seahawks entered the weekend ranked No. 14 in Massey, a better position than most of the other bubble teams.

They also own a 58-21 victory over Cumberlands and a 38-16 win against Florida Memorial, the same team that handed Southeastern one of its three losses.

Keiser nearly erased a 27-point halftime deficit against Southeastern last weekend before falling 41-35. The Seahawks concluded their regular season with a 46-32 win over Warner, improving to 7-3.

Their Projected FPI is 25.22, placing them No. 21 nationally.

Why They Could Be Out: The Seahawks have struggled to produce the signature victories needed to separate themselves from the rest of the bubble.

They entered Saturday just 1-2 against ARC-ranked opponents, with their only such victory coming against Cumberlands. The 52-7 loss to St. Thomas is difficult to overlook, and Southeastern owns the direct head-to-head advantage.

Keiser’s Projected FPI also ranks below those of Taylor, McPherson, Northwestern, Midland and Eastern Oregon.

My Take: I believe Keiser is better than its record suggests, and its Massey ranking supports that argument. The Seahawks also benefit from Southeastern’s upset loss to Ave Maria.

However, the lack of a major victory and three losses make it difficult to justify Keiser over the strongest remaining candidates. I currently have Keiser out.

Carroll College (7-3)

West ARC: No. 3 | Projected FPI: 24.50 (No. 26) | Massey: No. 12 | NSC: No. 14

Why They’re In: Carroll has one of the strongest analytical arguments in the bubble discussion.

The Saints entered the weekend ranked No. 14 nationally by the Selection Committee and No. 12 in the Massey Ratings. They also occupied the No. 3 position in the West ARC, behind College of Idaho and Montana Tech.

Their performance against stronger teams in the Frontier Conference provides a strength-of-schedule argument that some other bubble candidates cannot match.

Why They Could Be Out: Saturday’s 26-20 overtime loss to Eastern Oregon is a major setback.

Carroll finishes 7-3, while Eastern Oregon improves to 8-2 and now owns the head-to-head victory.

The Saints’ Projected FPI drops from 25.11 to 24.50, placing them No. 26 nationally. That’s significantly below several of the teams competing for the final at-large spots.

The committee must determine whether Carroll’s superior Massey ranking outweighs losing directly to another team competing for the same postseason invitation.

My Take: This is one of the toughest calls on the board. Carroll’s Massey ranking is difficult to ignore, but I cannot justify keeping the Saints ahead of Eastern Oregon after Saturday.

Carroll could remain ahead of some bubble teams in the final regional evaluation, but I currently have the Saints outside the field.

Southeastern (7-3)

East ARC: No. 4 | Projected FPI: 23.89 (No. 29) | Massey: No. 22

Why They’re In: Southeastern owns one of the most significant victories among the bubble teams after defeating Keiser 41-35 on November 7.

That victory moved the Fire ahead of Keiser into the No. 4 spot in the East ARC and gave Southeastern a direct advantage over one of its primary postseason competitors.

The Fire also defeated Reinhardt 33-7 earlier this season, an increasingly valuable result with Reinhardt now holding the Appalachian Athletic Conference’s automatic berth.

Those two victories provide a quality-win argument that several bubble teams cannot match.

Why They Could Be Out: Southeastern’s postseason prospects took a significant hit Saturday with a 48-45 overtime loss to Ave Maria.

The Fire finish 7-3, with losses to St. Thomas, Florida Memorial and Ave Maria.

The updated Projected FPI is particularly damaging. Southeastern falls from 25.50 to 23.89, dropping to No. 29 nationally in our recalculation. That is the lowest Projected FPI among the eight teams being discussed.

Although Southeastern owns the victory over Keiser, the Seahawks defeated Florida Memorial, creating a complicated comparison among the Sun Conference teams.

My Take: Southeastern’s loss to Ave Maria dramatically changes the conversation.

I previously considered the Fire one of the stronger candidates for an at-large invitation because of their victories over Reinhardt and Keiser.

However, with three losses and a Projected FPI that now ranks No. 29, I have a difficult time putting Southeastern ahead of Eastern Oregon, Midland, McPherson or Taylor. I have the Fire outside the projected field.

Cumberland (Tenn.) (7-4)

East ARC: No. 7 | Projected FPI: 24.82 (No. 22) | November 9 FPI: 25.10

Why They’re In: Cumberland has put together a résumé that deserves some attention despite its four losses. The Phoenix own a 49-21 victory over Pikeville, a 31-10 road victory against Ave Maria and a 41-14 win over Florida Memorial. All three opponents finished with competitive records, and Ave Maria’s upset victory over Southeastern on Saturday makes Cumberland’s win over the Gyrenes look considerably better.

Cumberland also defeated Cumberlands 48-21 and finished the regular season with a dramatic 21-14 victory over Bethel, scoring 21 unanswered points after trailing 14-0 at halftime. The Phoenix have a Projected FPI of 24.82, ranking No. 22 nationally. That places Cumberland ahead of Carroll College, Southeastern and Georgetown in our calculations.

Why They Could Be Out: Four losses are difficult to overcome when competing against programs with two or three defeats. Cumberland lost to St. Thomas, Georgetown, Campbellsville and Lindsey Wilson, leaving the Phoenix without a victory over the three strongest teams in their own conference.

The 21-19 home loss to Georgetown is particularly damaging because it gives another bubble candidate a direct head-to-head advantage. Cumberland also entered the final weekend just seventh in the East ARC, behind Southeastern, Keiser and Georgetown.

Their Projected FPI declined slightly from 25.10 to 24.82, and while it remains respectable, it isn’t strong enough to distinguish Cumberland from the other contenders.

My Take: Cumberland is a better team than its 7-4 record might suggest. The wins over Pikeville, Ave Maria and Florida Memorial make for an interesting argument, especially given how those teams performed against other contenders. However, the Phoenix simply have too many losses and too much ground to make up in the East ARC. I don’t see a realistic path for Cumberland to receive one of the seven at-large bids.

Georgetown (Ky.) (6-4)

East ARC: No. 6 | Projected FPI: 24.11 (No. 27) | November 9 FPI: 24.38

Why They’re In: Georgetown has one of the most compelling individual victories of any team competing for an at-large invitation. The Tigers defeated Lindsey Wilson 24-21 in overtime on October 10, handing the Blue Raiders one of their two regular-season losses.

That victory is significant considering Lindsey Wilson finished 9-2 and will receive an automatic invitation as the Mid-South Conference champion.

Georgetown also defeated Cumberland 21-19 on the road and played Campbellsville extremely close in a 24-21 loss on November 7. The Tigers finished the regular season Saturday with a 66-16 victory over Rio Grande, improving to 6-4.

Few bubble teams can point to a head-to-head victory over a program ranked as highly as Lindsey Wilson, and Georgetown’s competitive performance against Campbellsville further demonstrates its ability to challenge postseason-caliber opponents.

Why They Could Be Out: Georgetown’s four losses and disappointing analytical numbers are substantial obstacles.

The Tigers entered the weekend sixth in the East ARC, behind Southeastern and Keiser, and their Projected FPI of 24.11 ranks just No. 27 nationally. That is a decline from their November 9 FPI of 24.38.

The 26-25 home loss to Cumberlands on October 31 was particularly damaging. Georgetown also suffered defeats to St. Thomas and Campbellsville, leaving the Tigers with limited opportunities to build on their signature victory against Lindsey Wilson.

Most importantly, Georgetown has only six victories, while several other bubble teams finished with eight or nine wins and possess stronger analytical rankings.

My Take: Georgetown may be the most interesting team in this conversation when evaluating individual victories versus an entire season’s performance.

The win over Lindsey Wilson is outstanding, and the narrow loss to Campbellsville reinforces the Tigers’ ability to compete against highly ranked opponents. However, one signature victory cannot erase four losses and a Projected FPI ranking outside the top 25. Georgetown deserves to be mentioned in the discussion, but I have the Tigers comfortably outside the projected field.

My Final Bubble Projection

With Saturday’s games complete, I currently have Eastern Oregon, Midland and McPherson receiving the final three at-large invitations.

Eastern Oregon has the head-to-head victory over Carroll and an improving Projected FPI. Midland owns the direct victory over Northwestern and finished 9-2. Northwestern’s victory over Morningside, combined with its Massey ranking and previous position in the committee poll, may be enough to keep the Red Raiders in the field over McPherson despite Saturday’s disastrous result.

Taylor has a legitimate argument, particularly based on their overall records and updated Projected FPI numbers. However, their regional placements and quality-win profiles may work against them.

The final decisions are hardly clear-cut. It would not be surprising to see the committee produce a different outcome, particularly if the updated regional rankings shift significantly following Saturday’s results.

That’s what makes Selection Sunday interesting. There are more deserving teams than available positions, and somebody is going to be disappointed. Here’s what my NAIA Football Championship Series Officially looks like:

With the final at-large selections projected, the opening-round matchups for the 2026 NAIA Football Championship Series are beginning to take shape.

In my final projection, Eastern Oregon, Midland and McPherson claim the three remaining at-large invitations. That means Northwestern, despite entering the final weekend ranked No. 12 in the National Selection Committee poll, is left outside the 20-team field. I would not be surprised to see the Red Raiders included and McPherson left as the first team out.

McPherson is perhaps the most interesting inclusion. The Bulldogs finished 9-2 and carry a VSN Projected FPI of 26.27, ranking No. 17 nationally. Midland also finished 9-2, with a Projected FPI of 26.09, while Eastern Oregon’s overtime victory against Carroll College helped secure its projected postseason position.

Based on these selections, my projected first-round matchups are:

• Reinhardt (Ga.) at Louisiana Christian
• Ottawa (Kan.) at Baker (Kan.)
• Midland (Neb.) at Friends (Kan.)
• McPherson (Kan.) at Eastern Oregon

These are projections, not official matchups. These are just the opinion of a guy who has followed NAIA football for 25 years. I’ve talked to nobody on the committee about their opinions or the process they are using, so I could be entirely wrong. But I’ve used the criteria and this is what I’ve landed on. The NAIA will announce the 20-team field and postseason bracket on Sunday night, join us to talk about it.